Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.355362 25.654574 28.238503 31.392117 35.186349 39.671217 45.479819
2025-02-02 20.078754 23.060676 26.689839 31.556058 38.123909 47.045720 60.847665
2025-02-09 17.969471 21.316342 25.639889 31.889276 41.204296 55.654676 82.817281
2025-02-16 16.374925 19.898922 24.663379 31.978570 43.853442 64.733291 113.307902
2025-02-23 15.026404 18.586873 23.567661 31.583489 45.544078 73.012073 152.954830
2025-03-02 14.070177 17.677773 22.880643 31.625958 47.933453 84.053054 223.554449
2025-03-09 13.215400 16.808377 22.117225 31.363916 49.644418 94.838206 336.928510
2025-03-16 12.486704 16.045577 21.413200 31.055916 51.154079 106.469408 556.515849
2025-03-23 11.861836 15.378573 20.778580 30.750580 52.575233 119.421163 1112.319461
2025-03-30 11.344453 14.829806 20.272392 30.591619 54.295212 135.705482 4240.872767
2025-04-06 10.799393 14.198104 19.567864 29.940725 54.621917 147.346801 NaN
2025-04-13 10.652362 14.171196 19.868242 31.319929 60.784077 199.042684 NaN
2025-04-20 10.234890 13.694796 19.364470 30.992387 62.167943 229.287277 NaN
2025-04-27 9.914843 13.355192 19.072239 31.077922 64.919378 282.364231 NaN
2025-05-04 9.650419 13.088716 18.886106 31.369171 68.546735 369.482286 NaN
2025-05-11 9.378402 12.792928 18.620996 31.441216 71.529613 485.206067 NaN
2025-05-18 9.069774 12.419492 18.184114 31.050794 72.684104 597.541181 NaN
2025-05-25 8.836522 12.159864 17.940055 31.089243 75.637468 853.093484 NaN
2025-06-01 8.585738 11.858047 17.594653 30.833387 77.315194 1193.683500 NaN
2025-06-08 8.347172 11.566012 17.248744 30.533534 78.736899 1768.831686 NaN
2025-06-15 8.124465 11.291391 16.919270 30.236524 80.111760 2956.879234 NaN
2025-06-22 7.930798 11.058454 16.656548 30.081896 82.192799 7625.491677 NaN
2025-06-29 7.699077 10.750793 16.230194 29.448958 81.591589 16074.308095 NaN